The Naive Extrapolation Hypothesis and the Rosy-Gloomy Forecasts

Vasileios Barmpoutis

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: I study the behavior and the performance of the long-term forecasts issued by financial analysts with respect to the Extrapolation Hypothesis. That hypothesis states that investors, extrapolating from the firms' recent performances, are too optimistic about growth and large firms and too pessimistic about value and small firms. I find that the forecasting errors are higher for the growth firms and large firms, thus providing support for the Extrapolation Hypothesis. However, in addition to the rosy picture of the growth and large firms, the forecasts of the value and small firms are not so gloomy in many cases. My analysis also reveals that expectations move together for all categories of book-to-market and all sizes of firms. I proceed by investigating some common factors that may influence analysts' long-term forecasts, including co-movement and excessive optimism. I find that macro factors beyond a firm's recent performance may influence the formation of expectations.

Date: 2014-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec and nep-for
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