A two-stage model for dealing with temporal degradation of credit scoring

Maria Rocha Sousa, Jo\~ao Gama and Manuel J. Silva Gon\c{c}alves

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Abstract: This work is attached to the BRICS 2013 competition. We propose a two-stage model for dealing with the temporal degradation of credit scoring models. This methodology produced motivating results in a 1-year horizon. We anticipate that it can be extended to other applications of risk assessment with great success. Future extensions should cover predictions in larger time frames and consider lagged periods. This methodology can be further improved if more information about the economic cycles is integrated in the forecasting of default.

Date: 2014-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
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