Economics at your fingertips  

Estimation and prediction of credit risk based on rating transition systems

Jinghai Shao, Siming Li and Yong Li

Papers from

Abstract: Risk management is an important practice in the banking industry. In this paper we develop a new methodology to estimate and predict the probability of default (PD) based on the rating transition matrices, which relates the rating transition matrices to the macroeconomic variables. Our method can overcome the shortcomings of the framework of Belkin et al. (1998), and is especially useful in predicting the PD and doing stress testing. Simulation is conducted at the end, which shows that our method can provide more accurate estimate than that obtained by the method of Belkin et al. (1998).

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ger and nep-rmg
Date: 2016-07, Revised 2018-03
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().

Page updated 2019-12-07
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1607.00448