Time-Varying Comovement of Foreign Exchange Markets

Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda and Tatsuma Wada

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: A time-varying cointegration model for foreign exchange rates is presented. Unlike previous studies, we allow the loading matrix in the vector error correction (VEC) model to be varying over time. Because the loading matrix in the VEC model is associated with the speed at which deviations from the long-run relationship disappear, we propose a new degree of market comovement\ based on the time-varying loading matrix to measure the strength or robustness of the long-run relationship over time. Since exchange rates are determined by macrovariables, cointegration among exchange rates implies those macroeconomic variables share common stochastic trends. Therefore, the proposed degree measures the degree of market comovement. Our main finding is that the market comovement has become stronger over the past quarter century, but the rate at which market comovement strengthens is decreasing with two major turning points: one in 1995 and the other one in 2008.

Date: 2016-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1610.04334 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:1610.04334

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().