Economics at your fingertips  

Parameter uncertainty and reserve risk under Solvency II

Andreas Fr\"ohlich and Annegret Weng

Papers from

Abstract: In this article we consider the parameter risk in the context of internal modelling of the reserve risk under Solvency II. We discuss two opposed perspectives on parameter uncertainty and point out that standard methods of classical reserving focusing on the estimation error of claims reserves are in general not appropriate to model the impact of parameter uncertainty upon the actual risk of economic losses from the undertakings's perspective. Referring to the requirements of Solvency II we assess methods to model parameter uncertainty for the reserve risk by comparing the probability of solvency actually attained when modelling the solvency risk capital requirement based on the respective method to the required confidence level. Using the simple example of a normal model we show that the bootstrapping approach is not appropriate to model parameter uncertainty according to this criterion. We then present an adaptation of the approach proposed in \cite {froehlich2014}. Experimental results demonstrate that this new method yields a risk capital model for the reserve risk achieving the required confidence level in good approximation.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
Date: 2016-12, Revised 2017-04
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from
Series data maintained by arXiv administrators ().

Page updated 2017-09-29
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1612.03066