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Optimal Learning under Robustness and Time-Consistency

Larry Epstein () and Shaolin Ji

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Abstract: We model learning in a continuous-time Brownian setting where there is prior ambiguity. The associated model of preference values robustness and is time-consistent. It is applied to study optimal learning when the choice between actions can be postponed, at a per-unit-time cost, in order to observe a signal that provides information about an unknown parameter. The corresponding optimal stopping problem is solved in closed-form, with a focus on two specific settings: Ellsberg's two-urn thought experiment expanded to allow learning before the choice of bets, and a robust version of the classical problem of sequential testing of two simple hypotheses about the unknown drift of a Wiener process. In both cases, the link between robustness and the demand for learning is studied.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp, nep-mic and nep-upt
Date: 2017-08, Revised 2019-03
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