Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions

Johan Vikstr\"om, Geert Ridder and Martin Weidner

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper considers the identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Since treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long-run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, for example, proportional hazards. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes that tighten the bounds.

Date: 2017-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp
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Related works:
Journal Article: Bounds on treatment effects on transitions (2018)
Working Paper: Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions (2016)
Working Paper: Bounds on treatment effects on transitions (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:1709.08981

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