EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study

Bahram Sanginabadi

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: The primary goal of this study is doing a meta-analysis research on two groups of published studies. First, the ones that focus on the evaluation of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts and second, the ones that evaluate the market reactions to the USDA forecasts. We investigate four questions. 1) How the studies evaluate the accuracy of the USDA forecasts? 2) How they evaluate the market reactions to the USDA forecasts? 3) Is there any heterogeneity in the results of the mentioned studies? 4) Is there any publication bias? About the first question, while some researchers argue that the forecasts are unbiased, most of them maintain that they are biased, inefficient, not optimal, or not rational. About the second question, while a few studies claim that the forecasts are not newsworthy, most of them maintain that they are newsworthy, provide useful information, and cause market reactions. About the third and the fourth questions, based on our findings, there are some clues that the results of the studies are heterogeneous, but we didn't find enough evidences of publication bias.

Date: 2018-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1801.06575 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:1801.06575

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Series data maintained by arXiv administrators ().

 
Page updated 2018-02-17
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1801.06575