An ontological investigation of unimaginable events

Thomas Santoli and Christoph Siebenbrunner

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Abstract: We show that, under mild assumptions, some unimaginable events - which we refer to as Black Swan events - must necessarily occur. It follows as a corollary of our theorem that any computational model of decision-making under uncertainty is incomplete in the sense that not all events that occur can be taken into account. In the context of decision theory we argue that this constitutes a stronger sense of uncertainty than Knightian uncertainty.

Date: 2018-03, Revised 2018-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mic
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:1803.02570

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