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Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers

Andrea Bastianin (), Marzio Galeotti () and Matteo Manera ()

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Call centers' managers are interested in obtaining accurate point and distributional forecasts of call arrivals in order to achieve an optimal balance between service quality and operating costs. We present a strategy for selecting forecast models of call arrivals which is based on three pillars: (i) flexibility of the loss function; (ii) statistical evaluation of forecast accuracy; (iii) economic evaluation of forecast performance using money metrics. We implement fourteen time series models and seven forecast combination schemes on three series of daily call arrivals. Although we focus mainly on point forecasts, we also analyze density forecast evaluation. We show that second moments modeling is important both for point and density forecasting and that the simple Seasonal Random Walk model is always outperformed by more general specifications. Our results suggest that call center managers should invest in the use of forecast models which describe both first and second moments of call arrivals.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
Date: 2018-04
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http://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.08315 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Statistical and economic evaluation of time series models for forecasting arrivals at call centers (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria (2011) Downloads
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