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Multifractal characteristics and return predictability in the Chinese stock markets

Xin-Lan Fu, Xing-Lu Gao, Zheng Shan, Zhi-Qiang Jiang and Wei-Xing Zhou
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Xin-Lan Fu: ECUST
Xing-Lu Gao: ECUST
Zheng Shan: ECUST
Zhi-Qiang Jiang: ECUST
Wei-Xing Zhou: ECUST

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Abstract: By adopting Multifractal detrended fluctuation (MF-DFA) analysis methods, the multifractal nature is revealed in the high-frequency data of two typical indexes, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite 180 Index (SH180) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index (SZCI). The characteristics of the corresponding multifractal spectra are defined as a measurement of market volatility. It is found that there is a statistically significant relationship between the stock index returns and the spectral characteristics, which can be applied to forecast the future market return. The in-sample and out-of-sample tests on the return predictability of multifractal characteristics indicate the spectral width $\Delta {\alpha}$ is a significant and positive excess return predictor. Our results shed new lights on the application of multifractal nature in asset pricing.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk and nep-tra
Date: 2018-06
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