A martingale concept for non-monotone information in a jump process framework

Marcus C. Christiansen

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: The information dynamics in finance and insurance applications is usually modeled by a filtration. This paper looks at situations where information restrictions apply such that the information dynamics may become non-monotone. A fundamental tool for calculating and managing risks in finance and insurance are martingale representations. We present a general theory that extends classical martingale representations to non-monotone information generated by marked point processes. The central idea is to focus only on those properties that martingales and compensators show on infinitesimally short intervals. While classical martingale representations describe innovations only, our representations have an additional symmetric counterpart that quantifies the effect of information loss. We exemplify the results with examples from life insurance and credit risk.

Date: 2018-11, Revised 2021-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ias
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Published in Finance and Stochastics 25, 563-596 (2021)

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