Bayesian Inference for Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified by Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity

Helmut L\"utkepohl and Tomasz Wo\'zniak
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Helmut Lütkepohl

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Abstract: In this study, Bayesian inference is developed for structural vector autoregressive models in which the structural parameters are identified via Markov-switching heteroskedasticity. In such a model, restrictions that are just-identifying in the homoskedastic case, become over-identifying and can be tested. A set of parametric restrictions is derived under which the structural matrix is globally or partially identified and a Savage-Dickey density ratio is used to assess the validity of the identification conditions. The latter is facilitated by analytical derivations that make the computations fast and numerical standard errors small. As an empirical example, monetary models are compared using heteroskedasticity as an additional device for identification. The empirical results support models with money in the interest rate reaction function.

Date: 2018-11
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Related works:
Journal Article: Bayesian inference for structural vector autoregressions identified by Markov-switching heteroskedasticity (2020)
Working Paper: Bayesian Inference for Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified by Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:1811.08167

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