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What Is the Value Added by Using Causal Machine Learning Methods in a Welfare Experiment Evaluation?

Anthony Strittmatter ()

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Recent studies have proposed causal machine learning (CML) methods to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). In this study, I investigate whether CML methods add value compared to conventional CATE estimators by re-evaluating Connecticut's Jobs First welfare experiment. This experiment entails a mix of positive and negative work incentives. Previous studies show that it is hard to tackle the effect heterogeneity of Jobs First by means of CATEs. I report evidence that CML methods can provide support for the theoretical labor supply predictions. Furthermore, I document reasons why some conventional CATE estimators fail and discuss the limitations of CML methods.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-cmp and nep-exp
Date: 2018-12, Revised 2019-03
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