The risk of contagion spreading and its optimal control in the economy

Olena Kostylenko, Helena Sofia Rodrigues and Delfim F. M. Torres

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: The global crisis of 2008 provoked a heightened interest among scientists to study the phenomenon, its propagation and negative consequences. The process of modelling the spread of a virus is commonly used in epidemiology. Conceptually, the spread of a disease among a population is similar to the contagion process in economy. This similarity allows considering the contagion in the world financial system using the same mathematical model of infection spread that is often used in epidemiology. Our research focuses on the dynamic behaviour of contagion spreading in the global financial network. The effect of infection by a systemic spread of risks in the network of national banking systems of countries is tested. An optimal control problem is then formulated to simulate a control that may avoid significant financial losses. The results show that the proposed approach describes well the reality of the world economy, and emphasizes the importance of international relations between countries on the financial stability.

Date: 2018-12
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in Stat. Optim. Inf. Comput. 7 (2019), no. 3, 578--587

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.06975 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:1812.06975

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().