 Cross-sectional Learning of Extremal Dependence among Financial AssetsXing Yan, Qi Wu and Wen Zhang Abstract: We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint heavy-tailed random vectors featuring not only distinct marginal tail heaviness, but also flexible tail dependence structure. The novelty lies in that pairwise tail dependence between any two dimensions is modeled separately from their correlation, and can vary respectively according to its own parameter rather than the correlation parameter, which is an essential advantage over many commonly used methods such as multivariate $t$ or elliptical distribution. It is also intuitive to interpret, easy to track, and simple to sample comparing to the copula approach. We show its flexible tail dependence structure through simulation. Coupled with a GARCH model to eliminate serial dependence of each individual asset return series, we use this novel method to model and forecast multivariate conditional distribution of stock returns, and obtain notable performance improvements in multi-dimensional coverage tests. Besides, our empirical finding about the asymmetry of tails of the idiosyncratic component as well as the market component is interesting and worth to be well studied in the future. Date: 2019-05, Revised 2019-10 Published in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 3852-3862, 2019 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:1905.13425 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Papers from arXiv.org |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.