A Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory Model for Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Joint Forecasting

Zhengkun Li, Minh-Ngoc Tran, Chao Wang, Richard Gerlach and Junbin Gao

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Abstract: Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace density has led to a flexible likelihood-based framework for joint modelling of VaR and ES. It is of high interest in financial applications to be able to capture the underlying joint dynamics of these two quantities. We address this problem by developing a hybrid model that is based on the Asymmetric Laplace quasi-likelihood and employs the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) time series modelling technique from Machine Learning to capture efficiently the underlying dynamics of VaR and ES. We refer to this model as LSTM-AL. We adopt the adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for Bayesian inference in the LSTM-AL model. Empirical results show that the proposed LSTM-AL model can improve the VaR and ES forecasting accuracy over a range of well-established competing models.

Date: 2020-01, Revised 2021-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-ecm, nep-for and nep-rmg
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