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Crisis contagion in the world trade network

C\'elestin Coquid\'e, Jos\'e Lages and Dima L. Shepelyansky

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Abstract: We present a model of worldwide crisis contagion based on the Google matrix analysis of the world trade network obtained from the UN Comtrade database. The fraction of bankrupted countries exhibits an \textit{on-off} phase transition governed by a bankruptcy threshold $\kappa$ related to the trade balance of the countries. For $\kappa>\kappa_c$, the contagion is circumscribed to less than 10\% of the countries, whereas, for $\kappa

Date: 2020-02
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Published in Appl Netw Sci 5, 67 (2020)

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Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2002.07100