Staggered Release Policies for COVID-19 Control: Costs and Benefits of Sequentially Relaxing Restrictions by Age

Henry Zhao, Zhilan Feng, Carlos Castillo-Chavez and Simon A. Levin

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Strong social distancing restrictions have been crucial to controlling the COVID-19 outbreak thus far, and the next question is when and how to relax these restrictions. A sequential timing of relaxing restrictions across groups is explored in order to identify policies that simultaneously reduce health risks and economic stagnation relative to current policies. The goal will be to mitigate health risks, particularly among the most fragile sub-populations, while also managing the deleterious effect of restrictions on economic activity. The results of this paper show that a properly constructed sequential release of age-defined subgroups from strict social distancing protocols can lead to lower overall fatality rates than the simultaneous release of all individuals after a lockdown. The optimal release policy, in terms of minimizing overall death rate, must be sequential in nature, and it is important to properly time each step of the staggered release. This model allows for testing of various timing choices for staggered release policies, which can provide insights that may be helpful in the design, testing, and planning of disease management policies for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and future outbreaks.

Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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