EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Mortality containment vs. economics opening: optimal policies in a SEIARD model

Andrea Aspri, Elena Beretta, Alberto Gandolfi and Etienne Wasmer

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We adapt a SEIRD differential model with asymptomatic population and Covid deaths, which we call SEAIRD, to simulate the evolution of COVID-19, and add a control function affecting both the diffusion of the virus and GDP, featuring all direct and indirect containment policies; to model feasibility, the control is assumed to be a piece-wise linear function satisfying additional constraints. We describe the joint dynamics of infection and the economy and discuss the trade-off between production and fatalities. In particular, we carefully study the conditions for the existence of the optimal policy response and its uniqueness. Uniqueness crucially depends on the marginal rate of substitution between the statistical value of a human life and GDP; we show an example with a phase transition: above a certain threshold, there is a unique optimal containment policy; below the threshold, it is optimal to abstain from any containment; and at the threshold itself there are two optimal policies. We then explore and evaluate various profiles of various control policies dependent on a small number of parameters.

Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.00085 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Mortality containment vs. Economics Opening: Optimal policies in a SEIARD model (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: Mortality containment vs. Economics Opening: Optimal policies in a SEIARD model (2021)
Working Paper: Mortality containment vs. Economics Opening: Optimal policies in a SEIARD model (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2006.00085

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-19
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2006.00085