Who Manipulates Data During Pandemics? Evidence from Newcomb-Benford Law

Vadim S. Balashov, Yuxing Yan and Xiaodi Zhu

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We use the Newcomb-Benford law to test if countries have manipulated reported data during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that democratic countries, countries with the higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, higher healthcare expenditures, and better universal healthcare coverage are less likely to deviate from the Newcomb-Benford law. The relationship holds for the cumulative number of reported deaths and total cases but is more pronounced for the death toll. The findings are robust for second-digit tests, for a sub-sample of countries with regional data, and in relation to the previous swine flu (H1N1) 2009-2010 pandemic. The paper further highlights the importance of independent surveillance data verification projects.

Date: 2020-07, Revised 2021-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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