A Framework for Crop Price Forecasting in Emerging Economies by Analyzing the Quality of Time-series Data

Ayush Jain, Smit Marvaniya, Shantanu Godbole and Vitobha Munigala

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Accuracy of crop price forecasting techniques is important because it enables the supply chain planners and government bodies to take appropriate actions by estimating market factors such as demand and supply. In emerging economies such as India, the crop prices at marketplaces are manually entered every day, which can be prone to human-induced errors like the entry of incorrect data or entry of no data for many days. In addition to such human prone errors, the fluctuations in the prices itself make the creation of stable and robust forecasting solution a challenging task. Considering such complexities in crop price forecasting, in this paper, we present techniques to build robust crop price prediction models considering various features such as (i) historical price and market arrival quantity of crops, (ii) historical weather data that influence crop production and transportation, (iii) data quality-related features obtained by performing statistical analysis. We additionally propose a framework for context-based model selection and retraining considering factors such as model stability, data quality metrics, and trend analysis of crop prices. To show the efficacy of the proposed approach, we show experimental results on two crops - Tomato and Maize for 14 marketplaces in India and demonstrate that the proposed approach not only improves accuracy metrics significantly when compared against the standard forecasting techniques but also provides robust models.

Date: 2020-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.04171 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2009.04171

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().