Modeling and analysis of the effect of COVID-19 on the stock price: V and L-shape recovery

Ajit Mahata, Anish Rai, Om Prakash and Md Nurujjaman

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, a new and novel risk factor, leads to the stock price crash due to the investors' rapid and synchronous sell-off. However, within a short period, the quality sectors start recovering from the bottom. A stock price model has been developed during such crises based on the net-fund-flow ($\Psi_t$) due to institutional investors, and financial antifragility ($\phi$) of a company. We assume that during the crash, the stock price fall is independent of the $\phi$. We study the effects of shock lengths and $\phi$ on the stock price during the crises period using the $\Psi_t$ obtained from synthetic and real fund flow data. We observed that the possibility of recovery of stock with $\phi>0$, termed as quality stock, decreases with an increase in shock-length beyond a specific period. A quality stock with higher $\phi$ shows V-shape recovery and outperform others. The shock length and recovery period of quality stock are almost equal that is seen in the Indian market. Financially stressed stocks, i.e., the stocks with $\phi

Date: 2020-09, Revised 2020-11
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Published in Physica A, Volume 574, 15 July 2021, 126008

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2009.13076

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