Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda

Enayat A. Moallemi, Sibel Eker, Lei Gao (), Michalis Hadjikakou, Qi Liu, Jan Kwakkel, Patrick M. Reed, Michael Obersteiner, Zhaoxia Guo and Brett A. Bryan

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Progress to-date towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Despite the little chance of imminent success, past assessments have mostly focused on short- and medium-term evaluations, limiting the ability to explore the longer-term effects of systemic interactions with time lags and delay. Here we undertake global systems modelling with a longer-term view than previous assessments to explore the drivers of sustainability progress and how they could emerge by 2030, 2050, and 2100 under different development pathways and towards quantitative targets. We find that early planning for systems change to shift from business-as-usual to more sustainable pathways is important for accelerating progress towards increasingly ambitious targets by 2030, 2050, and 2100. These findings indicate the importance of adopting longer-term timeframes and pathways to ensure that the necessary pre-conditions are in place for sustainability beyond the current 2030 Agenda.

Date: 2020-12, Revised 2022-08
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Published in One Earth 5 (2022) 1-20

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