 Theory and Applications of Financial Chaos IndexMasoud Ataei, Shengyuan Chen, Zijiang Yang and M. Reza Peyghami Abstract: We develop a new stock market index that captures the chaos existing in the market by measuring the mutual changes of asset prices. This new index relies on a tensor-based embedding of the stock market information, which in turn frees it from the restrictive value- or capitalization-weighting assumptions that commonly underlie other various popular indexes. We show that our index is a robust estimator of the market volatility which enables us to characterize the market by performing the task of segmentation with a high degree of reliability. In addition, we analyze the dynamics and kinematics of the realized market volatility as compared to the implied volatility by introducing a time-dependent dynamical system model. Our computational results which pertain to the time period from January 1990 to December 2019 imply that there exist a bidirectional causal relation between the processes underlying the realized and implied volatility of the stock market within the given time period, where it is shown that the later has a stronger causal effect on the former as compared to the opposite. This result connotes that the implied volatility of the market plays a key role in characterization of the market's realized volatility. Date: 2021-01 Published in PHYSA 126160 2021 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2101.02288 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Papers from arXiv.org |
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