Trading Signals In VIX Futures

M. Avellaneda, T. N. Li, A. Papanicolaou and G. Wang

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We propose a new approach for trading VIX futures. We assume that the term structure of VIX futures follows a Markov model. Our trading strategy selects a position in VIX futures by maximizing the expected utility for a day-ahead horizon given the current shape and level of the term structure. Computationally, we model the functional dependence between the VIX futures curve, the VIX futures positions, and the expected utility as a deep neural network with five hidden layers. Out-of-sample backtests of the VIX futures trading strategy suggest that this approach gives rise to reasonable portfolio performance, and to positions in which the investor will be either long or short VIX futures contracts depending on the market environment.

Date: 2021-03, Revised 2021-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-cwa, nep-fmk and nep-upt
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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