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Big Data Information and Nowcasting: Consumption and Investment from Bank Transactions in Turkey

Ali B. Barlas, Seda Guler Mert, Berk Isa, Alvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca (), Tomasa Rodrigo, Baris Soybilgen and Ege Yazgan
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Ali B. Barlas: BBVA Research
Seda Guler Mert: BBVA Research
Tomasa Rodrigo: BBVA Research
Baris Soybilgen: Bilgi University
Ege Yazgan: Bilgi University

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Abstract: We use the aggregate information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm in Garanti BBVA Bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand. Particularly, we replicate the quarterly national accounts aggregate consumption and investment (gross fixed capital formation) and its bigger components (Machinery and Equipment and Construction) in real time for the case of Turkey. In order to validate the usefulness of the information derived from these indicators we test the nowcasting ability of both indicators to nowcast the Turkish GDP using different nowcasting models. The results are successful and confirm the usefulness of Consumption and Investment Banking transactions for nowcasting purposes. The value of the Big data information is more relevant at the beginning of the nowcasting process, when the traditional hard data information is scarce. This makes this information specially relevant for those countries where statistical release lags are longer like the Emerging Markets.

Date: 2021-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-big
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