Modelling risk for commodities in Brazil: An application to live cattle spot and futures prices
R. G. Alcoforado,
A. D. Eg\'idio dos Reis and
J. A. C. Santos
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This study analysed a series of live cattle spot and futures prices from the Boi Gordo Index (BGI) in Brazil. The objective was to develop a model that best portrays this commodity's behaviour to estimate futures prices more accurately. The database created contained 2,010 daily entries in which trade in futures contracts occurred, as well as BGI spot sales in the market, from 1 December 2006 to 30 April 2015. One of the most important reasons why this type of risk needs to be measured is to set loss limits. To identify patterns in price behaviour in order to improve future transactions' results, investors must analyse fluctuations in assets' value for longer periods. Bibliographic research revealed that no other study has conducted a comprehensive analysis of this commodity using this approach. Cattle ranching is big business in Brazil given that in 2017, this sector moved 523.25 billion Brazilian reals (about 130.5 billion United States dollars). In that year, agribusiness contributed 22% of Brazil's total gross domestic product. Using the proposed risk modelling technique, economic agents can make the best decision about which options within these investors' reach produce more effective risk management. The methodology was based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing algorithm, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ARIMA with exogenous inputs, generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic and generalised autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models. More specifically, 5 different methods were applied that allowed a comparison of 12 different models as ways to portray and predict the BGI commodity's behaviour. The results show that GARMA with order c(2,1) and without intercept is the best model.
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