Noise, fake news, and tenacious Bayesians

Dorje C. Brody

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: A modelling framework, based on the theory of signal processing, for characterising the dynamics of systems driven by the unravelling of information is outlined, and is applied to describe the process of decision making. The model input of this approach is the specification of the flow of information. This enables the representation of (i) reliable information, (ii) noise, and (iii) disinformation, in a unified framework. Because the approach is designed to characterise the dynamics of the behaviour of people, it is possible to quantify the impact of information control, including those resulting from the dissemination of disinformation. It is shown that if a decision maker assigns an exceptionally high weight on one of the alternative realities, then under the Bayesian logic their perception hardly changes in time even if evidences presented indicate that this alternative corresponds to a false reality. Thus confirmation bias need not be incompatible with Bayesian updating. By observing the role played by noise in other areas of natural sciences, where noise is used to excite the system away from false attractors, a new approach to tackle the dark forces of fake news is proposed.

Date: 2021-10, Revised 2022-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2110.03432

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