Interpolating commodity futures prices with Kriging

Andrea Maran and Andrea Pallavicini

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Abstract: The shape of the futures term structure is essential to commodity hedgers and speculators as futures prices serve as a forecast of future spot prices. Commodity markets quotes futures prices on a selection of maturities and delivery periods. In this note, we investigate a Bayesian technique known as Kriging to build a term structure of futures prices by embedding trends and seasonalities and by taking into account bid-ask spreads of market quotations on different delivery periods.

Date: 2021-10, Revised 2022-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2110.13021

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