Risk-Sensitive Optimal Execution via a Conditional Value-at-Risk Objective

Seungki Min, Ciamac C. Moallemi and Costis Maglaras

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Abstract: We consider a liquidation problem in which a risk-averse trader tries to liquidate a fixed quantity of an asset in the presence of market impact and random price fluctuations. The trader encounters a trade-off between the transaction costs incurred due to market impact and the volatility risk of holding the position. Our formulation begins with a continuous-time and infinite horizon variation of the seminal model of Almgren and Chriss (2000), but we define as the objective the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of the implementation shortfall, and allow for dynamic (adaptive) trading strategies. In this setting, we are able to derive closed-form expressions for the optimal liquidation strategy and its value function. Our results yield a number of important practical insights. We are able to quantify the benefit of adaptive policies over optimized static policies. The relevant improvement depends only on the level of risk aversion: for moderate levels of risk aversion, the optimal dynamic policy outperforms the optimal static policy by 5-15%, and outperforms the optimal volume weighted average price (VWAP) policy by 15-25%. This improvement is achieved through dynamic policies that exhibit "aggressiveness-in-the-money": trading is accelerated when price movements are favorable, and is slowed when price movements are unfavorable. From a mathematical perspective, our analysis exploits the dual representation of CVaR to convert the problem to a continuous-time, zero-sum game. We leverage the idea of the state-space augmentation, and obtain a partial differential equation describing the optimal value function, which is separable and a special instance of the Emden-Fowler equation. This leads to a closed-form solution. As our problem is a special case of a linear-quadratic-Gaussian control problem with a CVaR objective, these results may be interesting in broader settings.

Date: 2022-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
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