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Modelplasticity and Abductive Decision Making

Subhadeep and Mukhopadhyay
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Subhadeep: DEEP

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Abstract: `All models are wrong but some are useful' (George Box 1979). But, how to find those useful ones starting from an imperfect model? How to make informed data-driven decisions equipped with an imperfect model? These fundamental questions appear to be pervasive in virtually all empirical fields -- including economics, finance, marketing, healthcare, climate change, defense planning, and operations research. This article presents a modern approach (builds on two core ideas: abductive thinking and density-sharpening principle) and practical guidelines to tackle these issues in a systematic manner.

Date: 2022-03, Revised 2023-03
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