Bubble Prediction of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): An Empirical Investigation

Kensuke Ito, Kyohei Shibano and Gento Mogi

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Our study empirically predicts the bubble of non-fungible tokens (NFTs): transferable and unique digital assets on public blockchains. This topic is important because, despite their strong market growth in 2021, NFTs on a project basis have not been investigated in terms of bubble prediction. Specifically, we applied the logarithmic periodic power law (LPPL) model to time-series price data associated with four major NFT projects. The results indicate that, as of December 20, 2021, (i) NFTs, in general, are in a small bubble (a price decline is predicted), (ii) the Decentraland project is in a medium bubble (a price decline is predicted), and (iii) the Ethereum Name Service and ArtBlocks projects are in a small negative bubble (a price increase is predicted). A future work will involve a prediction refinement considering the heterogeneity of NFTs, comparison with other methods, and the use of more enriched data.

Date: 2022-03, Revised 2022-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban and nep-fmk
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