Two-dimensional forward and backward transition rates

Theis Bathke and Marcus Christiansen

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Forward transition rates were originally introduced with the aim to evaluate life insurance liabilities market-consistently. While this idea turned out to have its limitations, recent literature repurposes forward transition rates as a tool for avoiding Markov assumptions in the calculation of life insurance reserves. While life insurance reserves are some form of conditional first-order moments, the calculation of conditional second-order moments needs an extension of the forward transition rate concept from one dimension to two dimensions. Two-dimensional forward transition rates are also needed for the calculation of path-dependent life insurance cash-flows as they occur upon contract modifications. Forward transition rates are designed for doing prospective calculations, and by a time-symmetric definition of so-called backward transition rates one can do retrospective calculations.

Date: 2022-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ias
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