Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck and Emil Verner

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50% and cumulative excess mortality by 24% to 34%. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.

Date: 2022-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-his
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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