Jihad over Centuries

Masahiro Kubo and Shunsuke Tsuda

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper examines the origins of Islamist insurgencies, or jihad, through the lens of past prosperity, decline, and cultural revival in West Africa. Using shrinking water sources as an instrument, we show that trans-Saharan cities once-thriving under pre-colonial Islamic states but now deserted have become contemporary hotspots of jihadist violence. We argue that military power asymmetries between Islamic states and colonizers during historical jihad shaped the persistence of jihadist ideology, fueling today's resurgence especially in areas that lacked intense armed resistance against colonial invasions. Extensive qualitative evidence, a dynamic model of conflict, and individual-level surveys examining ideologies support this mechanism.

Date: 2022-11, Revised 2025-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-evo, nep-geo, nep-gro, nep-his and nep-ure
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