Simplifying and Improving: Revisiting Bulgaria's Revenue Forecasting Models

Fabio Ashtar Telarico

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: In the thirty years since the end of real socialism, Bulgaria's went from having a rather radically 'different' tax system to adopting flat-rate taxation with marginal tax rates that fell from figures as high as 40% to 10% for both the corporate-income tax and the personal-income tax. Crucially, the econometric forecasting models in use at the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance hinted at an increase in tax revenue compatible with the so-called 'Laffer curve'. Similarly, many economists held the view that revenues would have increased. However, reality fell short of those expectations based on forecasting models and rooted in mainstream economic theory. Thus, this paper asks whether there are betterperforming forecasting models for personal-and corporate-income tax-revenues in Bulgaria that are readily implementable and overperform the ones currently in use. After articulating a constructive critique of the current forecasting models, the paper offers readily implementable, transparent alternatives and proves their superiority.

Date: 2023-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-acc, nep-pbe and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in Economic Thought, 2023, 20 (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.09405 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2303.09405

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().