Economics at your fingertips  

Behavioral Machine Learning? Computer Predictions of Corporate Earnings also Overreact

Murray Z. Frank, Jing Gao and Keer Yang

Papers from

Abstract: There is considerable evidence that machine learning algorithms have better predictive abilities than humans in various financial settings. But, the literature has not tested whether these algorithmic predictions are more rational than human predictions. We study the predictions of corporate earnings from several algorithms, notably linear regressions and a popular algorithm called Gradient Boosted Regression Trees (GBRT). On average, GBRT outperformed both linear regressions and human stock analysts, but it still overreacted to news and did not satisfy rational expectation as normally defined. By reducing the learning rate, the magnitude of overreaction can be minimized, but it comes with the cost of poorer out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Human stock analysts who have been trained in machine learning methods overreact less than traditionally trained analysts. Additionally, stock analyst predictions reflect information not otherwise available to machine algorithms.

Date: 2023-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-cmp and nep-fmk
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().

Page updated 2023-05-21
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2303.16158