 Understanding the worst-kept secret of high-frequency tradingSergio Pulido, Mathieu Rosenbaum and Emmanouil Sfendourakis Abstract: Volume imbalance in a limit order book is often considered as a reliable indicator for predicting future price moves. In this work, we seek to analyse the nuances of the relationship between prices and volume imbalance. To this end, we study a market-making problem which allows us to view the imbalance as an optimal response to price moves. In our model, there is an underlying efficient price driving the mid-price, which follows the model with uncertainty zones. A single market maker knows the underlying efficient price and consequently the probability of a mid-price jump in the future. She controls the volumes she quotes at the best bid and ask prices. Solving her optimization problem allows us to understand endogenously the price-imbalance connection and to confirm in particular that it is optimal to quote a predictive imbalance. Our model can also be used by a platform to select a suitable tick size, which is known to be a crucial topic in financial regulation. The value function of the market maker's control problem can be viewed as a family of functions, indexed by the level of the market maker's inventory, solving a coupled system of PDEs. We show existence and uniqueness of classical solutions to this coupled system of equations. In the case of a continuous inventory, we also prove uniqueness of the market maker's optimal control policy. Date: 2023-07, Revised 2024-07 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2307.15599 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Papers from arXiv.org |
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