Portfolio Optimization in a Market with Hidden Gaussian Drift and Randomly Arriving Expert Opinions: Modeling and Theoretical Results

Abdelali Gabih and Ralf Wunderlich

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper investigates the optimal selection of portfolios for power utility maximizing investors in a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving randomly over time. The arrival dates are modeled as the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Applying Kalman filter techniques we derive estimates of the hidden drift which are described by the conditional mean and covariance of the drift given the observations. The utility maximization problem is solved with dynamic programming methods. We derive the associated dynamic programming equation and study regularization arguments for a rigorous mathematical justification.

Date: 2023-08, Revised 2024-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-upt
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