Total-effect Test May Erroneously Reject So-called "Full" or "Complete" Mediation

Tingxuan Han, Luxi Zhang, Xinshu Zhao and Ke Deng
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Tingxuan Han: Tsinghua University
Luxi Zhang: University of Macau
Xinshu Zhao: University of Macau
Ke Deng: Tsinghua University

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Abstract: The procedure for establishing mediation, i.e., determining that an independent variable X affects a dependent variable Y through some mediator M, has been under debate. The classic causal steps require that a "total effect" be significant, now also known as statistically acknowledged. It has been shown that the total-effect test can erroneously reject competitive mediation and is superfluous for establishing complementary mediation. Little is known about the last type, indirect-only mediation, aka "full" or "complete" mediation, in which the indirect (ab) path passes the statistical partition test while the direct-and-remainder (d) path fails. This study 1) provides proof that the total-effect test can erroneously reject indirect-only mediation, including both sub-types, assuming least square estimation (LSE) F-test or Sobel test; 2) provides a simulation to duplicate the mathematical proofs and extend the conclusion to LAD-Z test; 3) provides two real-data examples, one for each sub-type, to illustrate the mathematical conclusion; 4) in view of the mathematical findings, proposes to revisit concepts, theories, and techniques of mediation analysis and other causal dissection analyses, and showcase a more comprehensive alternative, process-and-product analysis (PAPA).

Date: 2023-09, Revised 2023-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-ger
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