The long-term impact of (un)conditional cash transfers on labour market outcomes in Ecuador

Juan Ponce, Jos\'e-Ignacio Ant\'on, Mercedes Onofa and Roberto Castillo

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Abstract: Despite the popularity of conditional cash transfers in low- and middle-income countries, evidence on their long-term effects remains scarce. This study assesses the impact of Ecuador's Human Development Grant on the formal sector labor market outcomes of children in eligible households. This grant, one of the first of its kind, is characterized by weak enforcement of its eligibility criteria. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that the programme had no impact on formal employment rates and labour income earned in the formal sector around a decade after exposure, and thus not affecting the intergenerational transmission of poverty. We discuss possible explanations for the lack of significant results considering how the programme contributes to persistence in school in the medium term.

Date: 2023-09, Revised 2025-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2309.17216

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