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Estimating Individual Responses when Tomorrow Matters

Stephane Bonhomme and Angela Denis

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We propose a regression-based approach to estimate how individuals' expectations influence their responses to a counterfactual change. We provide conditions under which average partial effects based on regression estimates recover structural effects. We propose a practical three-step estimation method that relies on panel data on subjective expectations. We illustrate our approach in a model of consumption and saving, focusing on the impact of an income tax that not only changes current income but also affects beliefs about future income. Applying our approach to Italian survey data, we find that individuals' beliefs matter for evaluating the impact of tax policies on consumption decisions.

Date: 2023-10, Revised 2024-05
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http://arxiv.org/pdf/2310.09105 Latest version (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: Estimating individual responses when tomorrow matters (2024) Downloads
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