Was Javert right to be suspicious? Marginal Treatment Effects with Duration Outcomes
Santiago Acerenza,
Vitor Possebom and
Pedro Sant'Anna ()
Papers from arXiv.org
Abstract:
We identify the distributional and quantile marginal treatment effect functions when the outcome is right-censored. Our method requires a conditionally exogenous instrument and random censoring. We propose asymptotically consistent semi-parametric estimators and valid inferential procedures for the target functions. To illustrate, we evaluate the effect of alternative sentences (fines and community service vs. no punishment) on recidivism in Brazil. Our results highlight substantial treatment effect heterogeneity: we find that people whom most judges would punish take longer to recidivate, while people who would be punished only by strict judges recidivate at an earlier date than if they were not punished.
Date: 2023-11, Revised 2025-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2311.13969
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