Multi-level emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China's netzero transition

Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Christoph Bertram, Yuxin Yin, David Bantje, Robert Pietzcker, Johanna Hoppe, Robin Hasse, Michaja Pehl, Sim\'on Moreno-Leiva, Jakob Duerrwaechter, Jarusch Muessel and Gunnar Luderer

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Abstract: Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply and electrifying end-use sectors. However, concerns exist that electrification may increase emissions while coal power dominates. Using a global climate model, we explore electrification scenarios with varying coal phase-out timelines and assess their climate impact on China's sectors. A ten-year delay in coal phase-out could increase global peak temperature by about 0.02{\deg}C. However, on a sectoral level, there is no evidence of significant additional emissions from electrification, even with a slower coal phase-out. This challenges the sequential ``order of abatement'' view, showing electrification can start before the power sector is fully decarbonized. As long as power emission intensity drops below 150 gCO2/kWh by 2040, electrification can substantially reduce the carbon footprint of buildings, steel, and transport services, and along with energy efficiency measures, it can avoid approximately 0.035{\deg}C of additional global warming by 2060.

Date: 2023-12, Revised 2025-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-ene and nep-env
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