Multi-level emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China's netzero transition

Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Christoph Bertram, Yuxin Yin, David Bantje, Robert Pietzcker, Johanna Hoppe, Robin Hasse, Michaja Pehl, Sim\'on Moreno-Leiva, Jakob Duerrwaechter, Jarusch Muessel and Gunnar Luderer

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Abstract: Decarbonizing China's energy system necessitates both greening the power supply and end-use electrification. However, there are concerns that electrification may be premature while coal power dominates. Using a global climate mitigation model, we examine multiple high electrification scenarios with different coal phase-out timelines. On an aggregate level, the pace of Chinese power sector decarbonization is climate significant. A ten-year delay in coal phase-out could alone increase global warming by around 0.011{\deg}C. However, on energy service and sectoral level there is no evidence of large-scale premature electrification even under slower coal phase-out. This challenges the sequential interpretation of the "order of abatement" - electrification can begin only when the power sector is almost decarbonized. As long as power emission intensity reduces to below 150 kgCO2/MWh by 2040, even with the current power supply mix, early scale-up of electrification brings a huge gain in CO2 abatement in the medium- to long-term, equivalent to approximately 0.04{\deg}C avoided warming.

Date: 2023-12, Revised 2024-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-ene and nep-env
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