Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts

Niklas Valentin Lehmann

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Open online crowd-prediction platforms are increasingly used to forecast trends and complex events. Despite the large body of research on crowd-prediction and forecasting tournaments, online crowd-prediction platforms have never been directly compared to other forecasting methods. In this analysis, exchange rate crowd-predictions made on Metaculus are compared to predictions made by the random-walk, a statistical model considered extremely hard-to-beat. The random-walk provides less erroneous forecasts, but the crowd-prediction does very well. By using the random-walk as a benchmark, this analysis provides a rare glimpse into the forecasting skill displayed on open online crowd-prediction platforms.

Date: 2023-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-pay
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.09081 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2312.09081

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().