Enhancing CVaR portfolio optimisation performance with GAM factor models

Davide Lauria, W. Brent Lindquist and Svetlozar T. Rachev

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We propose a discrete-time econometric model that combines autoregressive filters with factor regressions to predict stock returns for portfolio optimisation purposes. In particular, we test both robust linear regressions and general additive models on two different investment universes composed of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 indexes, and we compare the out-of-sample performances of mean-CVaR optimal portfolios over a horizon of six years. The results show a substantial improvement in portfolio performances when the factor model is estimated with general additive models.

Date: 2023-12
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