Cu\'anto es demasiada inflaci\'on? Una clasificaci\'on de reg\'imenes inflacionarios

Manuel de Mier () and Fernando Delbianco ()

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Abstract: The classifications of inflationary regimes proposed in the literature have mostly been based on arbitrary characterizations, subject to value judgments by researchers. The objective of this study is to propose a new methodological approach that reduces subjectivity and improves accuracy in the construction of such regimes. The method is built upon a combination of clustering techniques and classification trees, which allows for an historical periodization of Argentina's inflationary history for the period 1943-2022. Additionally, two procedures are introduced to smooth out the classification over time: a measure of temporal contiguity of observations and a rolling method based on the simple majority rule. The obtained regimes are compared against the existing literature on the inflation-relative price variability relationship, revealing a better performance of the proposed regimes.

Date: 2023-11
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