Global Shipyard Capacities Limiting the Ramp-Up of Global Hydrogen Transport

Maximilian Stargardt, David Kress, Heidi Heinrichs, J\"orn-Christian Meyer, Jochen Lin{\ss}en, Grit Walther and Detlef Stolten
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Maximilian Stargardt: Forschungszentrum J\"ulich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Techno-economic Systems Analysis
David Kress: Forschungszentrum J\"ulich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Techno-economic Systems Analysis
Heidi Heinrichs: Forschungszentrum J\"ulich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Techno-economic Systems Analysis
J\"orn-Christian Meyer: RWTH Aachen University, Chair of Operations Management, Schoolf of Business and Economics, Aachen, Germany
Jochen Lin{\ss}en: Forschungszentrum J\"ulich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Techno-economic Systems Analysis
Grit Walther: RWTH Aachen University, Chair of Operations Management, Schoolf of Business and Economics, Aachen, Germany
Detlef Stolten: Forschungszentrum J\"ulich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Techno-economic Systems Analysis

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Abstract: Decarbonizing the global energy system requires significant expansions of renewable energy technologies. Given that cost-effective renewable sources are not necessarily situated in proximity to the largest energy demand centers globally, the maritime transportation of low-carbon energy carriers, such as renewable-based hydrogen or ammonia, will be needed. However, whether existent shipyards possess the required capacity to provide the necessary global fleet has not yet been answered. Therefore, this study estimates global tanker demand based on projections for global hydrogen demand, while comparing these projections with historic shipyard production. Our findings reveal a potential bottleneck until 2033-2039 if relying on liquefied hydrogen exclusively. This bottleneck could be circumvented by increasing local hydrogen production, utilizing pipelines, or liquefied ammonia as an energy carrier for hydrogen. Furthermore, the regional concentration of shipyard locations raises concerns about diversification. Increasing demand for container vessels could substantially hinder the scale-up of maritime hydrogen transport.

Date: 2024-03, Revised 2024-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-tre
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