Large increases in public R&D investment are needed to avoid declines of US agricultural productivity

Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Robert G. Chambers, Yurou He and David B. Lobell

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Abstract: Increasing agricultural productivity is a gradual process with significant time lags between research and development (R&D) investment and the resulting gains. We estimate the response of US agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to both R&D investment and weather, and quantify the public R&D spending required to offset the emerging impacts of climate change. We find that offsetting the climate-induced productivity slowdown by 2050 alone requires a sustained public R&D spending growth of 5.2-7.8% per year over 2021-2050. This amounts to an additional $208-$434B investment over this period. These are substantial requirements comparable to the public R&D spending growth that followed the two World Wars.

Date: 2024-05, Revised 2024-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-eff, nep-env and nep-sbm
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